Birmingham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS64 KBMX 142314
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
514 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 507 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026

 - Medium to high (50-80%) of rain expected this afternoon and
   evening across Central AL.

 - Sharp drop in temperatures expected Thursday with wind chill
   values as low as the single digits Thursday morning and wind
   chill values only reaching into the lower 30s in the north and
   upper 30s in the south.

 - Below normal temperatures expected to continue through the
   weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1114 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026

A deep trough will move east of the MS River today, with a low
pressure over the Great Lakes and an associated frontal boundary
moving through the state this afternoon and early night. Low level
flow from the west and southwest will help with some moisture
advection, with models showing PW values around 0.7-0.8 inches
through the afternoon ahead of the boundary. Climatology shows this
close to the 85th percentile for this time of year, so would expect
light to possibly moderate showers with this boundary.

The deep trough will allow for strong northerly winds to move very
dry and cold air quickly into the northwest before midnight. The dry
air will continue to move southeast through the few hours after
midnight, when all rain should move east of the state. A tight
pressure gradient will set up over the state early Thursday and
remain through the day, causing gusting winds up to 20 to 25 mph.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 20s in the north to the
upper 20s in the south. With the wind, the wind chill values will
hover in the low teens in the north and the upper teens in the
south.

With the breezy winds expected through the day on Thursday,
temperatures in the afternoon should reach into the upper 30s in the
far north and lower 40s through central and southern parts of the
area, but the wind chill will keep values into the 30s across most
of the area and barely out of the 20s across the north. By Thursday
night, the trough will move east of the state, with the pressure
gradient (and winds) beginning to weaken. The coldest temperatures
in the east, with values in the low 20s, will feel closer to the
actual temperature with those lighter winds.

Another low pressure develops and brings a boundary towards the area
for Friday night and Saturday. Right now, it looks like the moisture
may not be able to rebound quickly enough for anything more than
showers, so kept thunder out of the forecast. Models are starting to
latch onto a shortwave feature that moves across the base of this
trough as it moves east over the southeastern US. There is a very
large level of uncertainty in regards to temperatures and moisture
with this shortwave, so not advertising any sort of snow
accumulation at this time. If the trough slows down, we may not see
as cold temperatures, which may limit anything other than rain. And
with the dry air in place from the northwest flow, confidence is low
there will be enough moisture to coincide with the colder air. Will
watch for more updates.

At the beginning of the next work week, high pressure, dry
weather, and cold temperatures will prevail.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST WED JAN 14 2026

Showers are ongoing across the region early this evening as a
frontal boundary pushes south. This activity will push east of
the area over the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will accompany
this activity through about 03Z. VFR then returns for the
remainder of the period. A breezy north-northwesterly wind will
develop late this evening in the wake of the front. Gusts around
20 knots will be likely through Thursday afternoon. Breezy
conditions will help limit fog development overnight. Winds will
gradually weaken towards the end of this TAF window.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rainy conditions expected through the evening across the area
with drier air moving in behind the cold front for Thursday into
Friday. Min RHs will approach or drop below critical values for
most of the area Thursday and potentially in the eastern counties
for Friday. Another couple of systems will move through Friday
night through Saturday but confidence is low on how much moisture
will move into the area, so only light rain may be expected. Dry
conditions return Sunday through Tuesday with Min RHs once again
approaching or dropping below critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     20  39  19  52 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    22  39  21  53 /  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  24  40  25  53 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  24  42  25  56 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      22  42  23  55 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      25  40  25  54 /  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  27  43  23  59 /  20   0   0   0
Troy        27  43  23  58 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...95/Castillo